Immigration in Canada

Projecting Into the Future

From CBC News Online | March 22, 2005

In the 2001 census, 13 per cent of Canadians identified themselves as belonging to a visible minority.

But by 2017, if Statistics Canada projections hold true, that number could climb to between 19 and 23 per cent.

What's more, by Canada's 150th birthday, almost 95 per cent of visible minorities would live in metropolitan areas, with three-quarters living in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal. And about one-half of the people living in Toronto and Vancouver would belong to a visible minority by 2017.

According to the projections, the visible minority population of Toronto will range between 2.8 million and nearly 3.9 million within 12 years.

Sustained Immigration to Canada

The main reason for this, StatsCan says, is an expectation of sustained immigration to Canada over the next 12 years, and the fact that a high proportion of immigrants are non-white.

Statistics Canada set up five different scenarios for future immigration rates and population growth. These scenarios predict that Canada's immigrant population could reach between seven million and 9.3 million in 2017.

That's an increase of between 24 per cent and 65 per cent from 2001, while the non-immigrant population of Canada would increase just four to 12 per cent.

Chinese and South Asians were the largest visibly minority groups in Canada according to the 2001 census, and the projection doesn't see that changing. Roughly one-half of all visible minorities would belong to those groups by 2017.

Blacks would remain Canada's third-largest minority group, reaching a population of about one million.

Distribution of Immigrants in Canada

In Toronto, about a third of visible minorities would be South Asians. Nearly one half of the visible minority population in Vancouver would be Chinese. And in Montreal, blacks and Arabs would remain the largest visible minority groups, representing 27 per cent and 19 per cent of the minority population, respectively.

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